Drone Swarm Mission Chain

Drone Swarm Mission Chain

Inputs

Sent

Required

Evidence

Initial tests

Evidence scale

1.00×

Results

Total cost

$300k

Chance

—

ChanceOmeter

Trial

1

Help

Drone Swarm Mission Chain

Created by Dr. Greg Parnell and Dr. Sam Savage.

Each drone passes through five uncertain stages: Deploy → Available → Reliable → Survive → Mission.

The number of drones sent in the swarm and the test data can be changed.

Static Mode uses average probabilities. Stochastic Mode generates 10,000 possible futures. Use the Trial slider to view individual futures.

Increasing Tests improves confidence but does not change observed success rates.

The ChanceOmeter™ shows the probability of achieving the required number of successful missions.

Cost = Number Sent × Unit Cost

About the Open SIPmath™ Standard

SIPmath 3.0 Certified

The SIPmath standard from ProbabilityManagement.org stores stochastic data as auditable JSON objects that can be used in apps, spreadsheets, and enterprise systems.

See

Using Stochastic Data Systems: Applications in Budgeting, Cybersecurity, and Operations Planning by Sam Savage, Karen Guttieri, Gregory Parnell and Matthew Raphaelson. ORMS Today, Vol. 53, Issue 3, September 2026.

The ChanceOmeter, Probability Management 20 Years Later by Dr. Sam L. Savage. ORMS Today, Vol. 53, Issue 2, June 2026.